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Contagion Containment

#Non-profit

Your client is the International Olympic Committee (IOC), and the Summer Olympics are a couple months away. A viral outbreak has occurred in a country across the globe and has begun to spread. There …

Estimated Time 34 minutes
Difficulty Medium
Source Darden
68 / 100
Your client is the International Olympic Committee (IOC), and the Summer Olympics are a couple months away. A viral outbreak has occurred in a country across the globe and has begun to spread. There is a real threat that the outbreak reaches pandemic levels and arrives in the host country within a few weeks or months. Should the outbreak reach the host country, there is an 80% probability of a low-severity outbreak and a 20% chance of a high-severity outbreak. The modern Olympics, which date to 1896, have been cancelled previously only during wartime. Recently, the Rio Games in Brazil went on as scheduled in 2016 despite the outbreak of the Zika virus. Because countries bear a large cost to host the Olympics, the IOC has decided to be particularly cautious about the host country bearing significant unexpected costs. However, the IOC is unsure whether to cancel or move forward with the Olympics and would like your firm’s insight on how they should proceed.
Mock Interview
Interviewer

Your client is the International Olympic Committee (IOC), and the Summer Olympics are a couple months away. A viral outbreak has occurred in a country across the globe and has begun to spread. There is a real threat that the outbreak reaches pandemic levels and arrives in the host country within a few weeks or months. Should the outbreak reach the host country, there is an 80% probability of a low-severity outbreak and a 20% chance of a high-severity outbreak. The modern Olympics, which date to 1896, have been cancelled previously only during wartime. Recently, the Rio Games in Brazil went on as scheduled in 2016 despite the outbreak of the Zika virus. Because countries bear a large cost to host the Olympics, the IOC has decided to be particularly cautious about the host country bearing significant unexpected costs. However, the IOC is unsure whether to cancel or move forward with the Olympics and would like your firm's insight on how they should proceed.

You

Thanks. Before analyzing, I'd like to clarify a few key questions...

Interviewer

Good question. Let me provide some background information...

You

Based on this, I suggest analyzing from these dimensions...

AI Score
Clarifying + Framework /5 Exhibits + Analysis /5 Brainstorm + Conclusion /5 Universal Skills /5
Practicing...
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AI Mock Interview

This BCG case asks the candidate to advise the International Olympic Committee on a high-stakes go / no-go decision: whether to proceed with or cancel the Summer Olympics as a viral outbreak threatens to reach the host country. It tests structured decision-making under uncertainty, the ability to build a MECE framework that separates financial from non-financial factors and proceeding from cancelling, quantitative reasoning on revenue and expected value, and the business judgment to weigh human and reputational costs against the numbers. Strong candidates quantify the financial repercussions of each path first, then use those figures to frame the qualitative trade-offs before committing to a clear recommendation.

Key Insights:

  1. The decision hinges on a breakeven probability: setting the guaranteed value of cancelling equal to the value at stake if the Games proceed yields an indifference point of about two-thirds (66%), so the IOC should lean toward proceeding only if it believes the chance of the outbreak reaching the host country is meaningfully below that threshold.
  2. Sunk costs such as promotion already spent and unfinished construction are irrelevant to the forward-looking decision; recognizing this is a key test of the candidate’s judgment.
  3. Contract clauses matter: because sponsorships, ticket sales, licensing, and TV rights are only partially recoverable if the Games are cancelled, the two revenue outcomes are far apart, which is what drives the breakeven math.
  4. Non-financial factors, especially potential lives lost, relationship risk with current and future host countries, and the precedent of cancelling outside of wartime, should tip a close financial call rather than being treated as an afterthought.
  5. A rigorous answer pairs the recommendation with clearly mapped risks and next steps, such as commissioning an updated epidemiological estimate and negotiating contingency terms to narrow the gap between proceeding and cancelling.

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